The global natural gas market experienced a notable recovery in the first half of 2024,
with demand growing by 3% compared to the same period last year. This marks a significant
improvement following the supply shocks of 2022. However, despite this growth, challenges
remain, including supply constraints, rising gas prices, and geopolitical tensions that contribute
to price volatility. While global gas demand is expected to continue its upward trend in 2024,
growth is forecasted to moderate in the second half of the year, with Asia continuing to drive
much of the demand.
The first half of 2024 saw global gas demand increase by 3%, with the majority of this growth
(around 70%) occurring in the first quarter. Asia was the primary driver, accounting for about
60% of the increase, with countries like China and India seeing a rise in demand of over
10% year-on-year. Most of this growth was driven by industrial usage, particularly in
fast-growing Asian economies. Gas consumption in the power sector grew by a more
moderate 2%, and residential and commercial demand increased by 1%, boosted by
unusually warm temperatures in the first quarter.
Global LNG supply grew by just 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with growth
largely concentrated in the first quarter. However, in Q2 2024, LNG output declined
by 0.5%, marking the first year-on-year quarterly drop since 2020. This decline was
caused by feed gas supply issues and unexpected plant outages. Despite this, LNG
supply is expected to grow in the second half of the year, with new liquefaction capacity
coming online. Notably, the U.S. is expected to lead the way in new export capacity,
with expansions at Freeport LNG, Plaquemines LNG Phase 1, and the expected
start-up of Corpus Christi Stage 3.
The decline in LNG supply and robust demand growth in Asia resulted in a tighter
global gas balance in Q2 2024, pushing prices higher across key markets. Additionally,
concerns about Russian gas supplies to Europe added to the volatility, leading to
increased gas prices in both Asia and Europe. In the U.S., Henry Hub prices surged
nearly 70% from March to June, recovering from their lowest levels in decades,
driven by upstream production cuts, higher gas-fired power generation, and
increased exports.
Global gas demand growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2024, falling to below
2% year-on-year. This slowdown reflects the gradual recovery that began in late 2023.
For the entire year, global gas demand is forecast to grow by 2.5%, primarily driven by
industrial demand, with only marginal growth in the power sector. While fast-growing Asian
markets and gas-rich regions like North America, Africa, and the Middle East will see increases,
European demand is expected to decline.
The supply of low-emissions gases is forecast to more than double by 2027, with significant
growth driven by policy support and investments in low-carbon technologies. Europe and
North America are expected to account for over 70% of this growth, though emerging producers
such as Brazil, China, and India are also expected to scale up their output. However,
achieving the full potential of low-emissions gas will require continued investments and
policy actions to meet ambitious global emissions reduction targets.
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The global gas market is recovering, with growth in demand and rising prices indicating a
strengthening market in early 2024. However, challenges persist, including supply constraints,
geopolitical tensions, and the need for continued investment in both traditional and low-emissions
gas production. While demand growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2024,
Asia remains a key driver of the market. As the industry adapts to shifting energy demands and
climate goals, the future of gas will depend on balancing growth with environmental sustainability.
